2024 returned New Democrat David Eby to the Premier's Office with a single-seat majority, but also re-drew B.C. political landscape with the rise of the Conservative Party of B.C. under John Rustand and the fall of B.C. United. 

The central political event of 2024 was the provincial election campaign that officially started on Sept. 21, but failed to deliver a conclusive winner on Oct. 19. It ended with the B.C. NDP leading in 46 seats, the Conservative Party of B.C. leading in 45 seats and the B.C. Greens leading into two seats.

These initial results resurrected the Conservatives as political force in B.C., but left neither them nor the New Democrats with a clear majority. In fact, they granted the B.C. Greens the balance of power, but only until Oct. 28 when Elections BC had completed counting all outstanding absentee and mail-in ballots for all 93 ridings. 

All eyes ultimately focused on just one: Surrey-Guildford. Its Conservative candidate Honveer Singh Randhawa led the riding by some 100 votes against NDP incumbent Garry Begg after the initial count, but the outstanding votes had given Begg a 27-vote lead and Eby the additional seat to claim a bare majority.

But B.C.'s closest election in modern history – 33,321 votes separated New Democrats and Conservatives in the popular vote – would not go officially into the books until Nov. 8, after judicial recounts had confirmed the final vote count winners in Surrey-Guildford, Kelowna-Centre and Prince George-Mackenzie. 

In the first two ridings, the margin was less than 1/500 of all cast votes, with New Democrats and Conservatives winning one each. In Prince George-Mackenzie, the discovery of 861 uncounted votes triggered a partial judicial re-count, but did not change the victory of Conservative Kiel Giddens. 

The final results gave New Democrats their third straight governing mandate but also chastened Eby, who called the outcome a "near-death" experience. Several cabinet ministers lost their seats and the B.C. NDP barely retained a presence in the Interior regions of B.C. with the party winning most of its seats in Metro Vancouver, north of the Fraser River, and in Greater Victoria. 

This final outcome was a far cry from polls at the beginning of the year that were showing Eby's party heading toward a sweeping victory. While those polls were also showing British Columbians increasingly concerned about the direction of the province, they also expressed a clear preference for the New Democrats, partly because of Eby's personal popularity and partly because of the absence of perceived viable alternatives. 

That changed as the upstart Conservative Party of B.C. started to win the 'primary' on the centre-right part of the political spectrum against B.C. United, formerly known as the B.C. Liberals. While B.C. United had started 2024 as the Official Opposition, it found itself increasingly under pressure, running out of political space. Unable to match the institutional advantages of the B.C. NDP, the former B.C. Liberals struggled to match the public attention, which the Conservatives were gaining through early 2024.  Eventually, donors and B.C. United MLAs themselves started to vote with their purses and feet by throwing in their lot with the provincial Conservatives. 

B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon himself dismissed these developments by questioning the seriousness of the Conservatives and blaming their rise on British Columbians confusing Rustad's party with the federal Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre. Falcon advanced these arguments well into the summer, always on the premise that his party's fortunes would reverse once the campaign started in earnest. 

The party continued to make campaign promises throughout the summer, even as journalists openly questioned their and ultimately, his relevance. But the announcements continued deep into August, including Aug. 27 when Falcon unveiled a "bold plan" to help the forestry sector. 

Less than 24 hours later, Falcon unilaterally suspended his party's campaign and made a joint appearance with Rustad to reveal that emissaries from both parties had been negotiating behind the scenes to ostensibly combine their efforts against the B.C. NDP. But this was not a merger among equals on the eve of an election campaign, but rather a solitary act of capitulation to political realities. 

The announcement stunned not only the public, but also the remaining B.C. United MLAs and candidates, with many finding out through the media that their campaign for that party had ended without their consent. Some ran unsuccessfully as independents, while a few found a new home with the Conservatives.

Falcon's unprecedented suspension also completed a reversal of personal fortunes for both Falcon and Rustad, for it was Falcon who had kicked Rustad out of the party, which would eventually became B.C. United. 

Only future historians will be able to judge the long-term effects of Falcon's decision. But it immediately clarified the electoral choices facing British Columbians in the fall: a right-of-centre party speaking to working-class voters and "skeptics of modernity" led by a northern MLA who had worked in the forestry sector and a left-of-centre party centred on urban B.C. led by a former civil rights lawyer representing Vancouver-Point Grey, with the B.C. Greens left to fight for relevancy, even as the harmful effects of climate change were becoming more evident through wildfires and water shortages.

B.C. Greens, ultimately, lost half of their support from 2020 as their leader Sonia Furstenau failed to win her own race.

When Eby became premier in November 2022 without an election by following the late John Horgan as leader of the B.C. NDP, he promised British Columbians tangible improvements in areas such as housing, healthcare and day-to-day costs by the time they would head to the polls in fall of 2024. That time had now come and Conservatives soon found a receptive audience among British Columbians who were not sufficiently convinced that Eby had met its own test, especially when held up against the fact that the NDP had been in power for more than seven years, first as minority between 2017 to 2020, then as majority since. 

Eby, for his part, argued that he needed more time to build on the progress in areas such as housing, where some independent observers have credited him and his cabinet for making necessary, long over-due reforms. 

The campaign itself focused on a narrow range of ridings in the southern suburbs of Metro Vancouver, especially Surrey and the Fraser Valley.

Conservatives won a substantial majority of those ridings on top of their existing strongholds in the Interior. They even extended their appeal to the rural parts of Vancouver Island, a traditional NDP stronghold. But provincial Conservatives, who also ran an effective digital campaign focused on podcasts, video-clips and memes, ultimately failed to add a sufficiently large number of urban voters in Vancouver and Victoria to their coalition, something the former B.C. Liberals consistently managed to do. 

Possible reasons for the party's inability to add more seats in Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria could point to Conservatives positions on vaccines, climate change and other social issues such as SOGI 123.

Rustad's tacit endorsement of controversial Vancouver billionaire Chip Wilson – who accused Eby of being a communist – also likely dissuaded voters concerned about growing inequality and undue corporate influence.  Experts have also credited Eby's own personal popularity and dash-to-the-finish campaigning for his narrow victory. 

2024 ends with B.C.'s political landscape divided.

Eby has promised to bridge the rural-urban gap and his party's "stable-governance" agreement with the B.C. Greens promises the necessary stability inside the legislature to tackle issues near and dear to rural voters such as emergency-room closures. But 2025 also looms with economic uncertainties, key among them the threats of American tariffs, which could further complicate B.C.'s financial situation and force some difficult choices. 

But Conservatives also face tensions.

Their largely inexperienced caucus might be eager to get work, but outside observers and opponents will likely pay close attention to how Rustad will manage when it comes to maintaining party discipline. 

The provincial state funeral for former premier John Horgan – fondly known as "Premier Dad" – in the final days of 2024 temporarily united political leaders from across the spectrum and British Columbians of all stripes in grief to pay respect for the person and his accomplishments.

As such, it appeared as a reprieve from divisiveness and the end of an era.