Dear Editor,
This election is one of the most important of our lives.
That鈥檚 why it鈥檚 vital to understand the voting history of the electoral riding where you vote.
The federal North Island鈥揚owell River riding is a 鈥渟wing riding鈥�. We swing back and forth between electing the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) or the New Democratic Party (NDP). Historically, the other parties just don't come close to garnering the votes of either the NDP or the CPC.
Based on our past voting, the 2025 race should be primarily between the NDP (Tanille Johnston) and the Conservatives (Aaron Gunn). However, with fears that Pierre Polievre would align Canada with Donald Trump鈥檚 America, progressive voters are wondering how best to proceed.
History has the answer. A simple search on the Elections Canada website reveals the voting history of our riding. There have been six federal elections since 2006. In every election the New Democrats and the Conservatives are the top two parties. Both parties average around 40 per cent each of the total votes cast leaving just 20 per cent to be split among the other parties.
But that 20 percent is critical to the outcome of the election. This year, the progressive vote will be split between the Liberal, New Democrat and Green parties. How much the progressive vote splits between those parties will determine our next Member of Parliament.
The Greens garnered their most votes ever in 2019 with 14 per cent falling back to just six per cent of the total vote in 2021. The Liberals in this riding received their most votes ever in 2015 with approximately 15,000 votes (26 per cent) before falling back to about 13 per cent in 2019 and 2021.
The New Democrats are consistently above 23,000 votes or approximately 40 per cent of the total vote. The Greens and the Liberals have never come close to that. Based on our voting history the best chance to beat Aaron Gunn and the Conservatives on April 28 is to vote for the New Democrat candidate 鈥� Tanille Johnston.
Chris Hilliar
Comox Valley Regional District, Area C
