A B.C. economist says policy proposals from the federal parties do not measure up to the scope of Canada's housing problem.
"(Much) of the policy shift is shifting in the right direction. We still have the problem that the concrete policies on the table don't match the scale of the housing crisis," Alex Hemingway, senior economist with B.C. Society for Policy Solutions, said.
He made these comments after reviewing the housing policies of the federal Liberals, Conservatives, New Democrats and Greens.
Hemingway said he vetted the platforms through two questions: what are plans doing to significantly increase the supply of more affordable housing in the non-market sector; and how to address exclusionary zoning that exists in the biggest, most expensive cities.
"On the non-market side, there are some interesting proposals on the table," he said.
Liberals are proposing a new agency called Build Canada Homes as part of a program to double the pace of home building to just under 500,000 new homes per year. Pre-fabricated home manufacturers using Canadian lumber would receive federal support totalling $25 billion in debt financing. Builders of affordable homes would receive another $10 billion with $6 billion earmarked for "deeply affordable housing, supportive housing, Indigenous housing and shelters," according to plans federal Liberal Mark Carney presented last month.
"I think there is a lot to be said for that, particularly with the economic uncertainty that we are all facing right now for the federal government to really get back in the game," Hemingway said. "Of course, the federal government can't do all of that on its own, but it can make a contribution."
However, Hemingway added Liberal plans for $6 billion toward "deeply affordable housing" lack details. "(It) doesn't say over what time frame that would be spent, or how many units they are aiming to build in the segment."
Federal New Democrats, meanwhile, have promised to set aside 100 per cent of suitable federal lands to build more than 100,000 rent-controlled homes by 2035. It would be part of larger promise to build three million new homes by 2030. That essentially matches the Liberal plan to double the pace of new housing, according to Hemingway.
He said it makes sense to leverage public lands. The NDP also calls for the redesign and doubling of the Public Land Acquisition Fund 鈥� $1 billion over five years 鈥� to acquire more public land to build more rent-controlled homes.
While it is "good to see a push there," Hemingway questioned the ambition of the plan, in noting that 100,000 units over 10 years means 10,000 units per year spread across an entire country.
"I think that is a gap," he said.
New Democrats have also promised to replace Ottawa's Housing Accelerator Fund with the Canadian Homes Transfer and the Communities First Fund. The latter stipulates that municipalities must commit themselves to 20 percent non-market housing in every neighbourhood if they want to receive federal funding.
"I think that's positive, but again...how would that work?" he asked.
As for the federal Conservatives, Hemingway said their platform appears to be silent on the subject of non-market housing.
"Unless I have missed it, I haven't seen anything from the Conservatives on that part of the housing equation, except that they would cut back billions of dollars of federal housing funding, including the Housing Accelerator Fund," Hemingway said. "So I think there is a big gap there."
Conservatives, however, have pledged to remove the GST from the purchase of new homes valued at up to $1.3 million, a move that they said would save families up to $65,000 on home purchases and $3,000 on yearly mortgage payments.
"I think a policy like exempting GST from new homes may help squeeze a few people into ownership and may even incentivize the creation of a few new homes in the process," Hemingway said. "But at the same time, it is inflationary on home prices in the context of the housing shortage and under-building."
He added buyers may end up simply taking slightly larger mortgages to compete with each other for the same scarce homes.
"So it can be inflationary in that way...it's not a game-changing policy."
Other elements of the Conservative platform include incentivizing municipalities to speed up permits, free up land, and cut housing taxes.
Speaking Thursday, federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre announced his government would incentivize municipalities to cut building taxes for a total savings of $100,000 on an average home in Canada鈥檚 big cities. Conservatives would cover of half of every dollar municipalities cut from development cost charges up to a maximum of $50,000 for new home-buyers.
Federal Greens, meanwhile, describe housing as a human right in their housing platform. It includes promises to keep publicly-financed homes "affordable forever" through covenants and measures to stop corporations from buying up single-family homes.
"The Green Party will launch the biggest public housing construction program since the 1970s," federal Greens say on their website. "We鈥檒l create good local jobs. We鈥檒l use Canadian materials. Most importantly, we鈥檒l build homes that people can actually afford."
Despite all the funding promises, it is still difficult to increase density in areas currently zoned for single-family homes. Hemingway said none of the parties have attached conditions to funding promises that would end zoning restrictions on apartment buildings specifically.
Hemingway acknowledged zoning is primarily outside federal government jurisdiction.
"But we are seeing both provincial and federal government say, 'look, this is not managed well and we need to have more of a say and we are going to condition dollars on that.'
Hemingway said the housing issue does not exist independently of the tariff dispute with the United States that appears to have emerged as the dominant election issue.
"It (housing) is a fundamental challenge to household finances," Hemingway said. "It's a drag on economic productivity when you are pulling up the drawbridge or putting the walls around our big cities by refusing to build adequately in them."
So if Canada is looking for ways to reduce its economic dependence on the United States, while increasing productivity, "dealing with these fundamental issues of housing and exclusionary zoning in our big cities, should be an important economic priority."
