Earth鈥檚 average temperature set a new unofficial record high last Thursday, the third such milestone in a week that already rated as the and what one prominent scientist says could be the hottest in 120,000 years.
But it鈥檚 also a record with some legitimate scientific questions and caveats, so much so that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has distanced itself from it. It鈥檚 grabbed global attention, even as the number 鈥� 63 degrees Fahrenheit (17.23 degrees Celsius) 鈥� doesn鈥檛 look that hot because it averages temperatures from around the globe.
Still, scientists say the daily drumbeat of records 鈥� official or not 鈥� is a symptom of a larger problem where the precise digits aren鈥檛 as important as what鈥檚 causing them.
鈥淩ecords grab attention, but we need to make sure to connect them with the things that actually matter,鈥� climate scientist Friederike Otto of the Imperial College of London said in an email. 鈥淪o I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 crucial how 鈥榦fficial鈥� the numbers are, what matters is that they are huge and dangerous and wouldn鈥檛 have happened without .鈥�
Thursday鈥檚 planetary average surpassed the 62.9-degree mark (17.18-degree mark) set Tuesday and equaled Wednesday, according to data from the University of Maine鈥檚 , a tool that uses satellite data and computer simulations to measure the world鈥檚 condition. Until Monday, no day had passed the 17-degree Celsius mark (62.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in the tool鈥檚 44 years of records.
Now, the entire week that ended Thursday averaged that much.
Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, called the 63-degree mark 鈥渁n exceptional outlier鈥� that is nearly 6 degrees warmer than the average of the last 12,000 years. Rockstrom said it will 鈥渨ith high likelihood translate to even more severe extremes in the form of floods, droughts, heat waves and storms.鈥�
鈥淚t is certainly plausible that the past couple days and past week were the warmest days globally in 120,000 years,鈥� University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann said. He cited that says Earth is the warmest since the last age ended, and said Earth likely hasn鈥檛 been as warm dating all the way to the ice age before that some 120,000 years ago.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth temperature monitoring group said he wouldn鈥檛 be surprised if it is the warmest in 120,000 years. But he said long-term proxy measurements like tree rings aren鈥檛 precise.
This week鈥檚 average includes places that are sweltering under dangerous heat 鈥� , which checked in almost 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) 鈥� and the merely unusually warm, like Antarctica, where temperatures across much of the continent were as much as 8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.5 degrees Celsius) above normal this week.
Temperatures were so brutally hot Thursday in Adrar, Algeria, that the temperature never got below ) even at night when it is supposed to cool. That was the hottest ever nighttime low for Africa, according to weather historian and climatologist Maximiliano Herrera.
The temperature is ramping up across Europe this week, too. Germany鈥檚 weather agency, DWD, has predicted on Sunday and the Health Ministry has issued a warning to vulnerable people.
While there are small spots of cooler-than-normal temperatures across the globe, the University of Maine measurement is an average. That means some places 鈥� including both polar regions 鈥� will be extraordinarily warmer than normal and others will be cooler. On average it鈥檚 about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) warmer than the 1979-2000 average, which is warmer than the 20th and 19th century averages.
And 70% of the world is covered by oceans, which have been
Scientists say the heat is driven by two factors: Long-term warming from greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and a of part of the Pacific that changes weather globally and makes an already warming world a bit hotter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued a note of caution about the Maine tool鈥檚 findings, saying it could not confirm data that results in part from computer modeling, saying it wasn鈥檛 a good substitute for observations.
Scientists don鈥檛 understand and haven鈥檛 delved much into daily fluctuations, said Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi. Much more meaningful to them are global data over months, years and especially decades.
鈥淭he fact that we haven鈥檛 had a year colder than the 20th century average is much more relevant,鈥� Vecchi said.
Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, said immediacy of daily records is important.
鈥淭ell me that yesterday was the hottest day on record and I can relate the claim to ways in which yesterday鈥檚 heat constrained my behavior,鈥� she said. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 do the same with monthly or yearly data. 鈥� We experience the world hour-by-hour, day-by-day, not in monthly or yearly averages.鈥�
Discussions about how official the records are aren鈥檛 as important as the public getting the message 鈥渢hat Earth is warming and humans are responsible,鈥� said Max Boykoff, a University of Colorado environmental studies professor who tracks media coverage of climate change.
鈥淭he issue of climate change doesn鈥檛 often get its 15 minutes of fame. When it does, it鈥檚 usually tied to something abstract like a scientific report or a meeting of politicians that most people can鈥檛 relate to,鈥� said George Mason University climate communications professor Ed Maibach.
鈥淔eeling the heat 鈥� and breathing the wildfire smoke, as so many of us in the Eastern U.S. and Canada have been doing for the past month 鈥� is a tangible shared public experience that can be used to focus the public conversation,鈥� he said.
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